The first full week of 2019 came and went without much data from the USDA thanks to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Without the expected January 11th reports being released – which included the monthly WASDE report and winter wheat planting intentions – the market is continuing to look at private market data and usual…
Brennan Turner is the Founder & CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow as part of the Aspen Institute. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day on more than 50,000 acres!). Brennan’s comments on grain markets are regularly featured in everything from small-town newspapers to large media outlets like CNBC and Bloomberg.
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Last Tuesday, we got the USDA’s December WASDE report. As reminder, in the November WASDE report, the USDA adjusted production and carryout numbers for China, which boosted corn and global wheat stocks significantly.
The first week of December was pretty good to wheat prices, mainly helped by U.S. export sales and a small wheat production report from Australia.
To end the month of November, futures values increased in Minneapolis, helping both CPS and CWRS wheat prices make some significant gains. They were also helped by basis improving by about a nickel for most delivery periods and are now anywhere from 10 - 20 cents a bushel better than this time a month ago.
Wheat prices are trying to find some bullish footing as we near the end of November, thanks to heightened geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and U.S. wheat being more competitive on the international markets.
With Brexit looking like it’s finalized, there is some concern over what’s going to happen with the United Kingdom’s agriculture industry, namely trade flows.
Last Thursday, we got the USDA’s November WASDE report, and while the biggest surprise was the revision of Chinese production and inventories, there are some tidbits worth recognizing.