The USDA came out on Wednesday, September 12th with one of the most bearish WASDE reports in recent memory, destroying any pre-report expectations, especially for corn and soybeans.
Brennan Turner is the Founder & CEO of FarmLead.com, North America’s Grain Marketplace. He holds a degree in economics from Yale University and spent time on Wall Street in commodity trade and analysis before starting FarmLead. In 2017, Brennan was named to Fast Company’s List of Most Creative People in Business and, in 2018, a Henry Crown Fellow as part of the Aspen Institute. He is originally from Foam Lake, Saskatchewan where his family started farming the land nearly 100 years ago (and still do to this day on more than 50,000 acres!). Brennan’s comments on grain markets are regularly featured in everything from small-town newspapers to large media outlets like CNBC and Bloomberg.
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Grain markets are all in the red as the complex continues to have a losing first week of September.
Wheat prices continue to be the worst-performer of the group as the bullish dynamic in Europe, the Black Sea, and Australia has seemingly been priced in, relative to a decent-sized crop coming off in Canada.
Europe continues to garner attention thanks to extreme heat and the ongoing reduction in wheat production estimates. The key factor, however, is quality.
Nearly a year ago, we wrote a FarmLead Insights piece on the rise of the Russian wheat industry, and how they have been a key factor in the global wheat market.
The month of July started out slow for wheat prices, but as we got into the second half of the month, things started to pick up. We’ve started to see more aggressive moves in this first week of August, thanks to some drier weather in Europe, Australia, as well as North America.
Last week, Japan lifted its ban of importing Canadian wheat and immediately jumped into the market looking for 63,000 MT of 13.5% protein spring wheat. We had previously suggested that it could take up to three months before Japan ended its break-up with Canadian spring wheat.
What a difference a year makes. The portion of the US spring wheat crop rated good-to-excellent (G/E) are 40 points higher right now than last year, and we saw a big uptick in spring wheat acreage. The question, moving forward, is how the weather will hold. Spring wheat prices have faced renewed pressures thanks to trade and weather concerns.…